Todays Berita Pasar Saham Analisa amp Real-Time After Hours Berita Pra-Market Flash Kutipan Kutipan Bagan Interaktif Setelan Bawaan Harap diperhatikan bahwa begitu Anda membuat pilihan Anda, ini akan berlaku untuk semua kunjungan masa depan ke NASDAQ. Jika, sewaktu-waktu, Anda tertarik untuk kembali ke setelan default kami, pilih Setelan Default di atas. Jika Anda memiliki pertanyaan atau mengalami masalah dalam mengubah pengaturan default Anda, silahkan email isfeedbacknasdaq. Harap konfirmasikan pilihan Anda: Anda telah memilih untuk mengubah pengaturan default untuk Pencarian Kutipan. Ini sekarang akan menjadi halaman target default Anda kecuali Anda mengubah konfigurasi Anda lagi, atau Anda menghapus cookies Anda. Yakin ingin mengubah setelan Anda Kami mohon untuk meminta Harap nonaktifkan pemblokir iklan Anda (atau perbarui setelan Anda untuk memastikan javascript dan cookie diaktifkan), sehingga kami dapat terus memberi Anda berita pasar tingkat pertama Dan data yang Anda harapkan dari kami. Marketwatch NZDUSD dibuka di 0,7188 (mid-rate) pagi ini. Dalam apa yang ditundukkan perdagangan pada hari Jumat menjelang akhir pekan panjang AS, NZD melayang lebih rendah dari semua saingan utamanya. Pada hari Jumat malam, Dewan Konferensi AS mengatakan indeks ekonomi utamanya naik 0,6 pada bulan Januari setelah naik 0,5 pada bulan Desember. Hasilnya sedikit di atas perkiraan kenaikan 0,4. Penjualan ritel di Inggris untuk bulan Januari tiba-tiba menurun dengan laporan hari Jumat dari Kantor Statistik Nasional yang menunjukkan penjualan turun 0,35 mm menyusul penurunan pada bulan Desember di bulan Desember. Para ekonom memperkirakan penjualan akan meningkat sebesar 1 setelah jatuh pada November dan Desember 2016. Rilis data domestik yang penting untuk NZD minggu ini adalah Indeks PPI pagi ini, yang diperkirakan akan menunjukkan kenaikan harga barang dan bahan baku yang dibeli oleh produsen. Dari 0,9, dan Rabu pagi di Global Dairy Trade Auction. Pasar ekuitas global ditutup minggu ini mixed - Dow 0,02, SP 500 0,16, FTSE 0,30, DAX 0,00, CAC -0,65, Nikkei -0,58, Shanghai -0,85. Harga emas turun tipis pada hari Jumat di akhir pekan di 1.235 per ounce, WTI Crude Oil sedikit berubah pada hari Jumat untuk kerugian 0,9 mingguan, menutup minggu ini di 53,40 per barel. Inflasi AS naik pada laju tercepat sejak 2011 Inflasi AS naik pada laju tercepat sejak 2011 pada Januari, meningkatkan kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga Maret dari Federal Reserve. Dengan harga minyak yang stabil dan Dollar AS umumnya menguat, kenaikan inflasi yang mendasarinya akan menjadi kekhawatiran bagi the Fed. Berapa lama lagi mereka bisa menunggu sebelum menaikkan suku bunga Selanjutnya menambahkan bahan bakar ke kenaikan suku bunga Fed adalah lonjakan penjualan eceran dengan penjualan inti naik 0,8 besar saat penjualan mobil dikecualikan. Jelas bahwa ekonomi AS sedang menuju awal yang kuat di tahun 2017. Di pasar meskipun Dolar AS gagal mempertahankan kenaikan sebelumnya karena pasar mata uang tetap tidak yakin tentang rencana kenaikan suku bunga Fed. Ini telah melihat NZD dan AUD membentuk tanah vs USD dan melonjak naik lebih tinggi vs Likes Euro, Yen dan Pound. Saat ini pasar lokal akan fokus pada data pekerjaan Australia yang jatuh tempo pada pukul 1.30 sore. Pasar mencari kenaikan 10.000 pekerjaan namun rangkaian data sangat volatile. Tingkat pengangguran diperkirakan tidak berubah pada 5.8. Fed AS mengatakan tidak bijaksana untuk menunggu terlalu lama untuk menaikkan suku bunga Ketua Federal Reserve AS Janet Yellen hadir di hadapan Kongres AS pagi ini dan mengatakan tidak bijaksana menunggu terlalu lama untuk menaikkan suku bunga karena pertumbuhan ekonomi berlanjut dan kenaikan inflasi. Menunggu terlalu lama akan menjadi tidak bijaksana, berpotensi mensyaratkan Fed untuk menaikkan suku bunga dengan cepat, yang bisa mengganggu pasar keuangan, kata Yellen. Pasar bereaksi dengan mendorong suku bunga AS menguat dan Dollar AS juga sedikit menguat. Yang mengatakan pasar masih skeptis bahwa Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga pada awal Maret dan masih hanya mematok harga dalam dua kenaikan pada bulan Juni dan September. Seperti yang telah kita bahas sebelumnya, kunci pasar tahun ini akan menjadi jalur suku bunga AS, tingkat yang lebih tinggi akan memberi sinyal kekuatan yang lebih signifikan dalam Dollar Amerika Serikat. Tingkat NZDUSD turun di bawah 0,7150 pada berita namun secara umum tidak berubah vs persilangan lainnya. Data perumahan Januari kemarin sebagian besar diabaikan oleh pasar namun menunjukkan perlambatan tajam dalam aktivitas dan harga rumah Auckland yang meluncur ke belakang. Bagaimana pelepasan perumahan menjadi bisa menjadi ciri utama dari lansekap ekonomi NZ selama 12-18 bulan ke depan. Juga keluar kemarin adalah inflasi China yang masuk lebih tinggi dari yang diperkirakan pada 2,5 untuk tahun ini. Harga produsen benar-benar tertangkap mata meskipun saat mereka mencapai 6.9 besar. Kenaikan inflasi di China bisa melihat inflasi global bergerak lebih tinggi dan memberikan tekanan ke atas pada suku bunga jangka panjang. Malam ini kita mendapatkan update tentang inflasi AS dan penjualan ritel AS. Inflasi CPI headline diperkirakan akan mencapai 2,4 untuk tahun ini, tingkat tertinggi sejak 2011. Laba Dolar AS terhadap Rencana Pajak Trump Dolar AS membuat kenaikan yang solid karena fokus bergerak kembali ke Trumps rencana pajak fenomenal yang diperkirakan akan diumumkan dalam beberapa minggu. Pasar Ekuitas AS mendorong ke rekor lain karena pasar saham akan menjadi pemenang terbesar jika dia bisa mendapatkan usulan pajaknya melewati Kongres. Seperti biasa dengan rencana ini iblis akan terinci. Trump berkampanye untuk mengurangi tarif pajak perusahaan menjadi 15 dari tingkat sekarang 35. Dia berencana membayar pemotongan pajak dengan mengenakan 35 retribusi untuk semua barang impor. Jadi apa yang sebenarnya diusulkan akan sangat menarik. Menjelang pengumuman, kita bisa mengharapkan beberapa volatilitas ekstra karena spekulasi mengenai rincian akhir dari rencana tersebut meningkat. Di pasar NZ dan AUD tergelincir kembali vs menguatnya Dollar AS namun keduanya membuat kenaikan moderat vs Yen Jepang. Yen melemah setelah pertemuan puncak Trump Abe berakhir tanpa komentar mengenai tingkat Yen Jepang. Ini membuka pintu Yen yang lebih lemah. Hari ini kita mendapatkan update tentang aktivitas perumahan NZ dengan data REINZ untuk bulan Januari yang akan dirilis pada 09:30. Telah terjadi perlambatan signifikan dalam aktivitas pasar perumahan sejak peraturan pinjaman baru NZ Reserve Banks mulai berlaku akhir tahun lalu. Sore ini fokusnya pada data inflasi China dengan tingkat suku bunga tahunan yang diperkirakan akan naik ke level 2,4 dari 2.1 sebelumnya. Inflasi yang lebih tinggi di China dikombinasikan dengan melemahnya Yuan dapat menyebabkan inflasi lebih banyak secara global. Data dijadwalkan pada pukul 14.30. NZD Tetap Turun, Fokus ke AS minggu ini Dollar NZ tetap lebih rendah setelah minggu lalu RBNZ menilai suku bunga. Secara tradisional NZ Dollar telah menikmati keuntungan suku bunga yang wajar atas AS dan ini telah mendorong investor luar negeri untuk menahan dana di NZD. Namun dengan AS berencana menaikkan suku bunga tiga kali lipat tahun ini dan mungkin selanjutnya ada prospek nyata NZ kehilangan keuntungan suku bunga. Sejarah akan menyarankan agar NZ berjuang di lingkungan ini. Melihat ke depan, fokus utama akan dilakukan di AS dengan konferensi pers Donald Trump dengan Perdana Menteri Jepang Shinzo Abe karena malam ini. Mereka telah bertemu akhir pekan untuk membahas berbagai isu termasuk perdagangan. Pada Selasa malam Ketua Federal Reserve Janet Yellen memberikan Kesaksian setengah tahunannya kepada Kongres. Pasar akan memantau ini erat untuk petunjuk mengenai kemungkinan waktu kenaikan suku bunga AS berikutnya. Rabu malam melihat penjualan Eceran AS dan Inflasi Harga Konsumen dirilis. Fokus besar lainnya untuk pasar akan menjadi Trumps tax plan yang ia gambarkan akan menjadi fenomenal. Hal ini kemungkinan akan diumumkan pada periode 23 Februari sampai 2 Maret. Rencana pajak yang besar harus mengarah pada suku bunga AS yang lebih tinggi karena kemungkinan besar berarti defisit yang lebih besar. Suku bunga yang lebih tinggi harus memberikan dorongan untuk Dollar AS ke depan. Secara lokal, fokus data akan menjadi data inflasi China karena besok menjelang data ketenagakerjaan Australia jatuh tempo pada hari Kamis. Minggu ini dibulatkan oleh rilis penjualan Eceran NZ untuk Q4 2016. NZ Dollar Terjun lebih lanjut setelah RBNZ Rate review Dolar NZ turun tajam kemarin menyusul dari cadangan NZ Bank meninjau suku bunga. Perkiraan mereka hanya kenaikan satu tingkat pada kuartal pertama 2020 bertentangan dengan harga pasar dan ekspektasi. Reserve Bank memiliki pandangan yang lebih jinak tentang seberapa jauh inflasi akan pulih dan karenanya melihat lebih sedikit kebutuhan akan kenaikan suku bunga daripada yang dipikirkan pasar. Dolar NZ turun lebih dari 1 sen vs USD dan AUD dengan tingkat NZDAUD turun ke level terendah sejak awal November tahun lalu. Sore ini kami mendapat update mengenai pernyataan kebijakan moneter Australian Reserve Banks yang bisa berdampak lebih jauh pada crossrate. Di pasar internasional, Dolar AS melakukan rebound setelah Presiden AS Donald Trump mengatakan akan mengumumkan sebuah pernyataan pajak liga besar dalam tiga minggu ke depan. Pasar telah menunggu berita mengenai rencana pajak Trumps untuk bulan lalu dan telah berhati-hati dalam membeli Dolar AS tanpa adanya berita apapun. Berita tersebut mendorong Dollar AS di seluruh papan. Sore ini fokus pasar akan berada pada neraca perdagangan Chinas yang akan menarik lebih dari jumlah perhatian yang biasa diberikan Trumps berulang kali mengatakan bahwa China telah memanipulasi mata uang mereka untuk meningkatkan ekspor. RBNZ Holds Rates melihat hanya satu kenaikan pada tahun 2020 NZ Reserve Bank membuat tingkat bunga tunai resmi tidak berubah pagi ini dan mengatakan bahwa mereka hanya memperkirakan satu kenaikan suku bunga pada tahun 2020. Sementara inflasi baru pulih akhir-akhir ini, mereka tidak melihatnya naik di atas 2.0 selama perkiraan periode. Mereka juga melihat pertumbuhan harga rumah turun kembali ke nol selama periode perkiraan mereka (2020). Mereka mengatakan bahwa sumber utama pertumbuhan berasal dari konstruksi tapi ini bisa diperkirakan akan melambat saat boom perumahan besar memudar. Berita tersebut mengetuk dolar NZ lebih rendah di seluruh papan dan kami mungkin akan melihat beberapa kelemahan lebih lanjut dalam beberapa hari ke depan karena pasar menyesuaikan ekspektasi mereka terhadap suku bunga NZ. Besok siang Reserve Bank merilis pernyataan kebijakan moneter mereka dan pasar akan memperhatikan perkiraan suku bunga mereka. Ini bisa berdampak pada tingkat suku bunga NZDAUD yang tetap pada tingkat tinggi secara historis. Pasar internasional mixed semalam dengan harga minyak stabil meski terjadi kenaikan besar dalam persediaan minyak AS. Telah ada peningkatan tajam dalam produksi Minyak Shale AS dan ini tampaknya akan mengurangi dampak dari pengurangan produksi OPEC yang direncanakan. Data kunci malam ini akan menjadi neraca perdagangan Jerman yang diberikan Donald Trumps beberapa komentar terakhir tentang Jerman mengambil keuntungan dari Euro yang lemah. NZD Slides setelah RBNZ Wheelers berakhir berakhir NZ Dollar kehilangan tanah kemarin setelah Gubernur RBNZ Graeme Wheeler mengumumkan bahwa dia tidak akan mencari penunjukan ulang saat masa jabatannya berakhir pada bulan September. Wakil Grant Spencer saat ini yang juga akan selesai akan tinggal enam bulan lagi pada bulan September untuk memberikan transisi yang mulus bagi Gubernur berikutnya. Pencarian global sudah mulai mencari penggantinya. Kabar tersebut menyiratkan bahwa tidak akan ada perubahan suku bunga sampai paruh kedua 2018 setidaknya, mungkin tidak sampai 2019. Kemarin Reserve Bank merilis survei terakhir mereka mengenai ekspektasi inflasi yang naik 2 tingkat menjadi 1,9. Hal ini pada awalnya mendorong Dollar Selandia Baru namun mata uang tersebut segera turun kembali karena pasar menyadari bahwa kenaikan ekspektasi tersebut mencerminkan kenaikan inflasi aktual dan tidak mungkin mengubah pandangan Reserve Bank saat mereka meninjau kembali suku bunga besok pagi. Australian Reserve Bank mengkaji ulang suku bunga mereka kemarin dan tingkat suku bunga tidak berubah seperti yang diharapkan. Mereka memberikan penilaian optimis terhadap pertumbuhan global dan memperkirakan pertumbuhan Australia rata-rata 3,0 selama dua tahun ke depan. Ini berarti akhir siklus pemotongan suku bunga. Semalam Pound Inggris melakukan rebound setelah anggota dewan Bank of England mengatakan suku bunga Inggris mungkin perlu naik karena inflasi meningkat lebih cepat dari perkiraan. Euro tetap berada di kaki belakang setelah ada berita bahwa sayap kanan sayap kanan Calon Marinir Le Pen mendapat momentum dalam pemilihan. Le Pen telah mengkampanyekan kebijakan menarik Prancis dari Euro. Pelelangan Fonterra Dairy melihat kenaikan harga 1,0 sederhana namun kembali pada volume yang sangat rendah. Malam ini pasar akan menyaksikan persediaan Minyak AS untuk tanda-tanda peningkatan produksi AS menjelang RBNZ pada pukul 09:00 besok. Pasar stabil menjelang Tinjauan suku bunga lokal Pasar mata uang telah relatif stabil semalam setelah Jumat malam laporan pekerjaan AS yang solid. Jumlah pekerjaan yang ditambahkan jauh di atas ekspektasi di 227.000 (diharapkan 175.000) namun tidak adanya tekanan upah membuat Dolar AS berada di kaki belakang. Minggu ini Bank Sentral lokal akan menjadi fokus utama karena para pedagang memeriksa pernyataan masing-masing untuk indikasi pergerakan suku bunga di masa depan. Bank Cadangan Australia pertama hari ini tanpa perubahan tingkat suku bunga yang diharapkan. Rebound baru-baru ini pada harga komoditas inti Australia harus membantu mendukung perekonomian di tahun 2017. Harga rumah juga menunjukkan tanda-tanda rebound pada data terakhir. Bank Cadangan kami sendiri meninjau suku bunga pada pukul 09:00 pada hari Kamis dengan sekali lagi tidak ada pergerakan suku bunga yang diharapkan. RBNZ diperkirakan akan sedikit meningkatkan perkiraan inflasi namun diperkirakan terus bertahan hingga 2018. Fokus utamanya adalah pemikiran Reserve Banks mengenai perlambatan aktivitas pasar perumahan baru-baru ini. Dolar NZ yang tetap keras kepala juga harus mendapat penyebutan. Istilah RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheelers akan berakhir pada akhir September dan dia tidak diharapkan untuk menjalani masa jabatan yang lain. Ini akan menambah komplikasi dengan Pemilu yang dijadwalkan 23 September. Kedua peristiwa ini akan menambah kasus tanpa perubahan tingkat suku bunga tahun ini. Juga di data depan minggu ini kami memiliki lelang Fonterra Dairy lainnya menjelang data perdagangan China pada hari Jumat. USD melemah terhadap pertumbuhan upah lembut USD melemah pada akhir minggu karena data pekerjaan di bawah perkiraan. Meskipun angka gaji non-pertanian melampaui perkiraan 175K sampai 227K, pertumbuhan pendapatan per jam yang buruk dan kenaikan tingkat pengangguran telah melunakkan prospek pasar pekerjaan AS. Dengan pasar kerja AS di bawah par untuk the Fed kenaikan suku bunga yang akan datang pada bulan Maret ini mulai kehilangan kepercayaan saat ini dengan harga 9 peluang kenaikan suku bunga oleh the Fed. The Fed tetap berhati-hati pada kenaikan suku bunga sampai inflasi upah mulai meningkat menunjukkan fondasi yang lebih kuat di pasar tenaga kerja AS. Melihat ke depan untuk minggu ini dari Australia, penjualan ritel hari ini dan Reserve Bank of Australia besok, tanpa perubahan harga untuk penurunan suku bunga atau kenaikan. Angka inflasi dari Selandia Baru Selasa dan Lelang Susu Selasa malam, akan di lihat di Reserve Bank of New Zealand Kamis pagi, sekali lagi tanpa perubahan tingkat suku bunga yang diharapkan. Dengan kedua bank The Australia dan Selandia Baru Reserve dengan pernyataan pertama mereka tahun ini mungkin tampak beberapa volatilitas di AUD dan NZD sepanjang minggu. AUD naik saat Neraca Perdagangan Melonjak kembali ke Black Dolar Australia naik tajam kemarin setelah data perdagangan terakhir menunjukkan neraca perdagangan melonjak kembali ke level hitam. Sebuah rebound tajam pada harga komoditas inti Australias, Iron Ore dan Coal over Q4 mendukung kenaikan surplus perdagangan yang masif. Jika rebound berlanjut, maka Australia akan kembali ke surplus perdagangan tahunan yang akan menjadi dorongan besar bagi perekonomian. Kami sudah mulai melihat kenaikan di sektor pertambangan di belakang harga yang lebih tinggi dan sepertinya pertambangan mungkin menjadi sumber pertumbuhan utama di tahun 2017. Di pasar, Dolar Aussie naik lebih dari satu sen vs. USD dan Salib NZDAUD jatuh kembali ke level rendah 0,9500 sen setelah mendekati level 0,9700 di awal minggu ini. Di Inggris, Bank of England meninggalkan suku bunga tidak berubah dan mengatakan bahwa mereka melihat lebih banyak kapasitas cadangan dalam perekonomian. Namun, indikator berwawasan ke depan seperti harga produsen menunjukkan kenaikan tajam pada inflasi. BOE memang menaikkan perkiraan pertumbuhan mereka hingga 2,0 dari 1,4 sebelumnya namun mereka memperkirakan tingkat suku bunga tetap rendah karena Inggris bergerak melalui proses Brexit. Malam ini semua mata akan berada di data pekerjaan AS dengan pasar memperkirakan akan terjadi kenaikan 175.000 pekerjaan untuk bulan Januari. Hasil yang kuat harus mendorong fokus kembali ke pertumbuhan AS dan area kunci yang akan ditonton adalah bagaimana pasar suku bunga AS bereaksi. Tingkat suku bunga yang lebih tinggi harus mengarah pada Dollar AS yang lebih kuat. NZD Terjun karena Migrasi membuat upah rendah Dolar NZ turun tajam kemarin setelah tingkat Pengangguran melonjak lebih tinggi karena gelombang migrasi baru-baru ini berarti ada lebih banyak pekerja yang mengejar lebih sedikit pekerjaan. Ledakan migrasi telah begitu kuat sehingga rata-rata penghasilan per jam benar-benar turun selama kuartal tersebut. Berita tersebut akan menempatkan Reserve Bank kembali pada garis-garis dan memastikan tidak akan ada kenaikan suku bunga sampai tahun 2018. Di pasar, mata uang tersebut turun tajam dari 1 sen vs USD dan AUD. NZD juga turun vs Euro, Yen dan UK Pound. Semalam fokus beralih ke AS dengan survei pekerjaan sektor swasta, laporan ADP, mencatat lompatan besar dalam pekerjaan yang ditambahkan pada bulan Januari. ADP melaporkan kenaikan 246.000 vs ekspektasi 165.000. Ada kabar baik lagi dari Amerika Serikat dengan data manufaktur meningkat dan harga yang dibayarkan di sektor manufaktur meningkat dengan laju tercepat sejak krisis keuangan. Pagi ini Federal Reserve mempertahankan suku bunga AS tidak berubah seperti yang diharapkan dan tidak memberi petunjuk pada waktu kenaikan suku bunga berikutnya. Ketua Fed Janet Yellen telah beberapa kali berbicara beberapa minggu terakhir dan mengindikasikan bahwa Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga tiga kali tahun ini. Meskipun demikian, pasar terus hanya menghasilkan dua kenaikan harga di bulan Juni dan Desember. Jumat malam Data pekerjaan resmi AS sekarang akan menjadi fokus besar berikutnya untuk pasar menjelang review suku bunga utama oleh Bank Cadangan Australia (Selasa) dan Selandia Baru (Kamis) minggu depan. Dolar AS turun setelah komentar Trump pada Mata Uang Dolar AS turun tajam semalam setelah komentar oleh presiden AS Donald Trump yang mengatakan bahwa perusahaan AS telah melakukan outsourcing produksi di luar negeri karena devaluasi mata uang oleh negara lain. Trumps penasehat perdagangan utama Peter Navaro mengatakan kepada keuangan bahwa Jerman menggunakan Euro yang terlalu undervalued untuk mendapatkan keuntungan lebih dari Amerika Serikat. Agar adil terhadap Trump dan penasehatnya, Jerman telah makmur di bawah Euro yang telah jauh lebih lemah sehingga Deutschemark Jerman yang lama jadinya. Jerman mengalami surplus perdagangan yang besar yang sebagian besar didorong oleh Euro yang lemah. Komentar tersebut melihat dolar AS jatuh dan lonjakan nilai Euro. Tidak jelas apakah kamp Trump menginginkan Dolar AS secara signifikan lebih lemah atau mereka mencoba untuk tingkat lapangan bermain dengan mitra dagang utama mereka. Either way kita akan berada dalam selama beberapa tahun volatilitas mata uang yang ekstrim seperti Trump menerapkan rencananya. NZD dan AUD keduanya diuntungkan oleh melemahnya Dollar AS namun keduanya kehilangan basis pada Euro dan Yen. NZD terus merayap lebih tinggi vs Dolar Aussie menjelang data Pengangguran untuk Selandia Baru yang akan keluar pada pukul 10.45 pagi ini. Tingkat Pengangguran diperkirakan akan turun satu takik menjadi 4,8 dan pendapatan rata-rata diperkirakan akan meningkat 0,50 untuk kuartal ini. Lonjakan konstruksi yang mengikuti boom perumahan merupakan sumber utama pertumbuhan lapangan kerja. Nanti hari ini kita mendapatkan update bulanan terbaru tentang manufaktur China. Malam ini kita mendapatkan perkiraan sektor swasta untuk US Jobs, laporan ketenagakerjaan ADP. Besok pagi, kita mendapatkan update pertama dari Federal Reserve AS yang bisa mengayunkan sorotan kembali ke suku bunga AS. Pasar bergerak untuk mengambil risiko di Trump Travel Ban Pasar keuangan global beralih ke mode risk off selama akhir pekan setelah Presiden AS Donald Trump memperkenalkan larangan perjalanan yang membatasi kedatangan para migran dari tujuh negara yang sebagian besar adalah negara-negara Muslin. Larangan Perjalanan dipandang meragukan pertumbuhan AS dan kekhawatiran pasar tentang negara-negara lain membalas dengan pembatasan perdagangan dan perjalanan barang dan warga AS. Sepertinya ketidakpastian tentang Trump dan kebijakannya akan menyertai kita untuk beberapa lama. Aspek kunci adalah bagaimana Federal Reserve menafsirkan rencana Trumps. The Fed bertemu minggu ini dan sementara tidak ada perubahan yang diharapkan komentar mereka seperti biasa akan dipantau secara ketat untuk petunjuk apapun. Ketua Fed Janet Yellen telah memberikan beberapa pidato akhir-akhir ini bahwa the Fed berencana menaikkan suku bunga tiga kali tahun ini. Di pasar, Dollar AS lebih kuat vs Euro dan Pound namun lebih lemah vs Yen Jepang yang dipandang sebagai mata uang safe haven pada saat terjadi gejolak internasional. Dolar NZ telah berjalan dengan baik selama akhir pekan melawan perusahaan vs Dolar AS dan membuat kenaikan terhadap semua suku bunga utama dengan pengecualian Yen. Data minggu yang sibuk di depan dengan data migrasi NZ hari ini diikuti oleh data pekerjaan Q4 besok untuk NZ. Pertemuan Fed akan menjadi sorotan utama AS yang diikuti oleh laporan pekerjaan AS pertama tahun ini yang dijadwalkan pada Jumat malam. NZD jatuh meskipun Inflasi meningkat Dolar NZ memulai hari ini lebih rendah meski ada tanda inflasi pada Q4. Harga konsumen naik 0,4 di kuartal mendorong tingkat tahunan hingga 1,3, tepat di dalam kisaran Reserve Banks 1.0-3.0. Sumber utama kenaikan harga adalah biaya membangun rumah baru. Sepertinya ini terjadi setiap kali kita mengalami booming perumahan. Harga rumah naik, investor menumpuk dan menaikkan harga lebih tinggi. Akhirnya lebih banyak rumah dibangun tapi dengan biaya yang sangat tinggi. Pertanyaan besarnya adalah bagaimana respon Reserve Bank Data terakhir menunjukkan bahwa pasar perumahan telah mendingin secara signifikan dalam beberapa bulan terakhir karena peraturan pinjaman baru Reserve Banks yang berlaku mulai berlaku. Kami juga melihat tingkat suku bunga KPR meningkat sebesar 0,50 yang mencerminkan tingkat suku bunga global yang lebih tinggi. Reserve Bank mengkaji suku bunga pada 9 Februari dan perkiraan dan komentar mereka tentang jalur suku bunga masa depan akan sangat diperhatikan. Saat ini tidak ada perubahan yang diharapkan sampai tahun 2018. Jadi NZD telah turun kembali tajam vs Dollar AS setelah melonjak lebih tinggi pada berita CPI. NZD menguji level 0.7300 namun memulai hari di bawah 0,7250. NZD juga mereda kembali lebih jauh vs the British Pound turun di bawah 0,5750, setelah pertumbuhan Inggris menguat lebih kuat dari yang diperkirakan pada Q4. Perekonomian Inggris tumbuh 0,6 di kuartal ini dan 2,2 untuk tahun ini. Di Amerika Serikat, ketegangan antara AS dan Meksiko meningkat tajam setelah Donald Trump mengatakan Meksiko harus membayar Wall-nya. Presiden Meksiko membalas dengan membatalkan sebuah jadwal perjalanan ke Washington. Suku bunga AS bergerak menguat untuk mengantisipasi defisit AS yang terus meningkat untuk mendanai rencana pengeluaran infrastruktur Trumps. Malam ini kita mendapatkan update tentang pertumbuhan AS untuk Q4 dan juga update data barang tahan lama bulanan. Saham AS naik ke rekor tertinggi pada rencana Wall Trump Sharemarket AS naik ke rekor tertinggi setelah Presiden AS Donald Trump mengumumkan rencana untuk membangun Wall-nya di perbatasan AS-Meksiko. Berita tersebut mendorong indeks saham Dow Jones melewati level 20.000 untuk pertama kalinya. Suku bunga AS juga meningkat tajam karena berita tersebut meminta kembalinya pinjaman yang lebih tinggi kepada Trump karena defisit AS cenderung meningkat tajam. Namun, Dollar AS gagal mengikuti tren kenaikan harga aset AS karena pasar mata uang tetap waspada terhadap impuls proteksionisme pada perdagangan. Pound Inggris adalah mata uang berkinerja terbaik semalam naik ke tingkat tertinggi dalam lebih dari dua bulan. Inggris terlihat menjadi ekonomi utama pertama yang menandatangani kesepakatan perdagangan baru dengan AS dan ini akan memberi dorongan ekonomi Inggris dan keunggulan utama bagi mantan mitra Eropanya. Di Australia, data inflasi terakhir sedikit menurun dari ekspektasi namun rata-rata tertimbang tahunan yang disebut Reserve Bank of Australia naik sedikit. Pada keseimbangan, kami memperkirakan RBA akan ditahan selama sisa 2018. Berita positif lainnya untuk Australia berasal dari sektor batubara dimana Yancoal milik China meningkatkan aset Batubara Australianya sebesar US $ 5 Miliar. Yancoal membeli persentase terbesar aset batubara Rio Tintos dan juga meningkatkan akses mereka ke pelabuhan utama Newcastle yang akan melipatgandakan output mereka. Lima tahun berlalu dari puncak boom pertambangan, sepertinya pertambangan akhirnya mulai pulih yang menjadi pertanda pertumbuhan yang baik bagi Australia. Fokus lokal hari ini akan berada di NZS Q4 Consumer Price Index yang akan keluar pada pukul 10.45. Pasar mencari kenaikan kuartalan 0,3 dan kenaikan tahunan sebesar 1,2. Jika data masuk seperti yang diharapkan, ini akan menjadi yang pertama kalinya dalam lebih dari dua tahun bahwa inflasi akan kembali ke dalam pita RBNZs 1.0-3.0.). Dolar AS berjuang Dollar AS berjuang melawan sebagian besar mitra dagang utama semalam karena pasar terus khawatir tentang kurangnya detail seputar rencana ekonomi Presiden Trumps. Trump bertemu dengan kepala tiga perusahaan mobil utama AS, General Motors, Ford dan Fiat Chrysler dan kemudian mendorong untuk membeli orang Amerika dan mempekerjakan orang Amerika. Trump ingin menghidupkan kembali manufaktur Amerika dan meningkatkan pekerjaan AS. Trump juga menandatangani sebuah kontrak pipa minyak kontroversial saat ia memilah-milah environmentalisme yang mendukung peningkatan produksi minyak. Suku bunga AS bergerak menguat setelah lelang utang terbaru dari Treasuries AS yang menjual US28 miliar hutang dua tahun pada level 1,21. Ini membantu Dollar AS kembali menguat versus Yen Jepang, yang merupakan mata uang yang paling sensitif terhadap perbedaan suku bunga. Ini telah melihat lonjakan suku bunga NZDJPY di atas tingkat 82,00 yang menawarkan nilai bagus untuk Importir Australia dan Australia dari Jepang. Hari ini fokus lokal akan berada pada Inflasi Harga Konsumen Q4 Australia. Pasar sedang mencari kenaikan 0,7 untuk kuartal yang akan menempatkan inflasi tahunan hingga 1,6 dari 1,3 sebelumnya. Tingkat suku bunga NZDAUD telah bergerak kembali di atas level 0,9500 karena pasar terus melihat suku bunga acuan RBNZ bergerak ke atas dan RBA masih dinilai sebagai kesempatan untuk menurunkan suku bunga akhir tahun ini. Baik Bank Cadangan Australia dan Selandia Baru meninjau suku bunga pada minggu kedua bulan Februari dengan kedua suku bunga yang diharapkan tidak menghasilkan tingkat suku bunga masing-masing. (Australia 1.50, NZ 1.75). Dolar AS jatuh karena Trump memo NAFTA dan TPP Dolar AS berada di kaki belakang semalam karena Presiden Amerika Serikat Donald Trump yang baru diresmikan membuat janji kampanyenya membatalkan Perjanjian Perdagangan Bebas Amerika Utara (NAFTA) dan Kemitraan Trans Pacific yang baru ditandatangani ( TPP). Pasar khawatir dengan dampak ekonomi dari pendekatan proteksionis yang diupayakan oleh Trump. Akankah pertumbuhan melambat jika perdagangan melambat Jelas akan memakan waktu bertahun-tahun bagi Trumps untuk membawa pekerjaan kembali ke AS untuk memiliki efek. Akankah biaya roket langit barang impor jika Trumps merencanakan 20 pajak perbatasan mulai berlaku. Pada catatan yang lebih positif, Trump bertemu dengan pemimpin bisnis dan mengatakan akan memotong peraturan sebanyak 75 atau lebih yang seharusnya mempercepat investasi di pabrik dan peralatan baru. Berita ini membebani harga minyak karena ini adalah salah satu industri yang akan mendapat sedikit keuntungan dari peraturan yang berlaku dan telah terjadi peningkatan tajam dalam jumlah rig minyak aktif yang bekerja di AS. Di pasar, Yen Jepang telah menguat terhadap Dollar AS yang melemah karena suku bunga AS bergerak turun. Pound Inggris juga menguat karena sepertinya Inggris akan menjadi negara besar pertama yang menandatangani kesepakatan perdagangan baru dengan AS. Ini akan menjadi dorongan besar bagi perekonomian Inggris. Lebih dekat ke rumah NZ dan Dolar Australia sedikit lebih kuat vs melemahnya Dollar AS. Bank NZ terus mendorong suku bunga KPR yang lebih tinggi yang mencerminkan tingkat suku bunga global yang umumnya meningkat yang mendorong biaya pendanaan mereka. Bank telah meminjam hampir NZD 100 Miliar di luar negeri untuk dipinjamkan ke pasar perumahan dan karena kenaikan suku bunga global, kita dapat memperkirakan tingkat bunga hipotek meningkat. Kenaikan suku bunga KPR mungkin mengesampingkan kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga oleh NZ Reserve Bank setidaknya untuk tahun depan. Era Trump dimulai - apakah Dolar AS akan kuat atau lemah Setelah berbulan-bulan membangun Donald Trump akhirnya dilantik sebagai Presiden Amerika Serikat ke-45. Pasar keuangan telah mendorong Dollar AS naik tajam dalam beberapa bulan terakhir dengan harapan bahwa Trumps policy akan menjadi inflasi dan karena itu mengarah pada suku bunga AS yang lebih tinggi. Namun, pada sentimen terakhir berubah sedikit dengan orang mulai menebak pandangan kedua itu. Kenyataannya terletak di depan kita sekarang tapi tingkat suku bunga AS yang lebih tinggi nampak sepertinya ekonomi AS terus pulih. Tentu ekonomi AS terlihat jauh di atas mitra utama lainnya kecuali China. Ketua Federal Reserve AS Janet Yellen memberikan serangkaian pidato minggu lalu yang mengulangi rencana Fed untuk menaikkan suku bunga tiga kali tahun ini. Namun, pada tahap ini pasar tetap skeptis dan hanya memiliki harga dalam dua kenaikan suku bunga. Jadi intinya adalah menjaga suku bunga AS tahun ini karena mereka melihat kunci pergerakan mata uang yang mendasarinya. Fokus utama lokal untuk Dollar NZ dan Dollar Australia akan menjadi laporan inflasi triwulanan yang akan keluar minggu ini. Kami mendapat kabar terbaru mengenai data CPI Q4 Australia pada hari Rabu dengan kenaikan 0,7 yang diperkirakan untuk kuartal ini, diikuti oleh NZ Data yang jatuh tempo pada hari Kamis dengan hanya kenaikan 0,3 yang diharapkan. Inflasi yang lebih tinggi di Australia pada akhirnya bisa melihat tekanan ke bawah terhadap tingkat suku bunga NZDAUD yang tetap bertahan di level 0.9500 selama beberapa bulan terakhir namun membuka hari ini lebih lemah di sekitar level 0.9450. US Home Building Surges, Yen jatuh Data Gedung Rumah AS terbaru melonjak semalam memberikan bukti lebih lanjut tentang kekuatan pemulihan ekonomi AS. Sebelum krisis keuangan, gedung rumah AS mencapai puncaknya di lebih dari 2,0 juta rumah per tahun namun anjlok di bawah 500k setelah krisis. Data malam terakhir menunjukkan pertumbuhan tahunan sekarang kembali mendekati 1,3 juta rumah per tahun, yang mendekati tingkat kelulusan jangka panjang. Membangun rumah sangat positif bagi perekonomian karena memiliki efek meluas yang luas untuk mendorong banyak industri. Ini akan menjadi faktor kunci lain yang mendorong Federal Reserve AS untuk menindaklanjuti kenaikan tiga suku bunga yang direncanakan tahun ini. Di pasar mata uang Yen jatuh karena suku bunga AS melonjak tinggi menyusul komentar kemarin pagi dari kursi Federal Reserve AS Janet Yellen yang mengatakan bahwa Fed berencana menaikkan tingkat suku bunga menjadi 3,0 pada akhir 2019 dari kisaran 0.50-0,75 saat ini. Yen adalah mata uang global yang paling sensitif terhadap suku bunga AS yang lebih tinggi mengingat komitmen Bank of Japan untuk menjaga suku bunga jangka panjang di 0,0 sampai inflasi naik di atas 2,0. Dolar NZ bertahan relatif baik vs USD dan telah membuat kenaikan yang kuat vs Yen Jepang dengan tingkat NZDJPY sekarang kembali di atas 82,00. Data pekerjaan Australia pada hari-hari Australia menunjukkan kenaikan pekerjaan yang sedikit lebih besar dari yang diperkirakan, namun tingkat pengangguran naik satu tingkat karena semakin banyak orang yang bergabung dengan keseluruhan angkatan kerja, lebih banyak orang mencari pekerjaan. Malam ini pasar akan didominasi oleh peresmian Presiden Donald Trump yang baru terpilih. Akankah dia mulai membuat pengumuman selama akhir pekan Tentu 100 hari berikutnya terlihat sangat tidak stabil saat Trump mulai menindaklanjuti rencananya. Dolar AS rebound pada data manufaktur, Fed outlook Dolar AS melakukan rebound semalam didorong oleh data manufaktur yang kuat dan penilaian yang lebih optimis terhadap ekonomi AS dalam survei bisnis Fed terbaru. The Feds Beige Book which surveys a range of business across the country reported increased manufacturing activity as well as increasing labour shortages across most sectors. Wages are already growing at a 2.9 rate, which is the highest level since the financial crisis peaked back in 2009. A move in wage rates above 3.0 would almost guarantee that the Fed will follow through on their planned three interest rate hikes this. If they do it will put the US cash rate up to the 1.25-1.50 range and most likely give the US Dollar a further boost. In the markets the NZD has dropped back sharply vs the stronger US Dollar to start the day around the 0.7150 level. The NZD has also slipped back vs the Aussie Dollar to be trading back below 0.9500 for Importers. Today we get updates on NZ manufacturing as well as building consents data for NZ. It will be interesting to see if the recent decline in house prices and the sharp drop in housing sales starts to flow through to consents. The housing boom has been the main driving force behind the current period of economic growth, but as housing cools we may see this spread out to other parts of the economy. This afternoon we get an update on Australian employment with an estimated 10,000 jobs expected to have been added but no change is forecast to the unemployment rate which sits at 5.7. In the US tonight housing starts and Oil stocks are the key data pieces to watch. Pound strengthens on May speech, US Dollar slides on Trump comments The Pound has strengthened across the board as Theresa May indicated her plan for a clean Brexit from the European Union. What is assuring for the market is that the UK government will put the deal it establishes with the EU to a parliamentary vote. The positive tone of this mornings speech has seen the Pound strengthen against its major trading partners. With May indicating that the goal of the UKs split from the EU is to create a New and equal partnership. Which would seek to establish a bold and ambitious free trade agreement with the EU. Mays first priority during the process is to provide as much certainty as possible to both the business sector and public. In the US comments from Donald Trump saying he was concerned about the strength of the US Dollar weighed on the US Currency. Trump said the level of the US Dollar against the Chinese Yuan was killing us. The market has assumed that Trumps plans will be inflationary and boost US interest rates and in turn the US Dollar. However, if it turns out that Trump wants to pursue a weak currency that would come as a surprise for the currency markets. Overnight UK consumer price inflation levels rose by 1.6 backed by the weaker pound of late. The Fonterra Dairy auction out overnight saw Dairy prices barely changed on flat volumes. The NZD rose strongly against the weaker US Dollar with the NZDUSD rate pushing up towards the 0.7200 level. The NZDGBP rate plunged more than 2.0 as the Pound staged its biggest percentage gain in more than eight years. On the data calendar we have US consumer price inflation and another speech from Fed Chair Janet Yellen. In Europe we get also get an update on European inflation. Markets await UK PM Speech Financial markets have traded with a cautious tone overnight ahead of tonights speech by The UKs Prime Minister Theresa May. Markets are worried that the UKs break up from the EU will hurt UK exports and drive foreign direct investment out of the country. Over the last two months the focus has been more on Donald Trumps policies and plans which markets have reacted positively to. It will be interesting to see how markets react to Mays speech, given the level of negative sentiment ahead of it. This morning we have had another very weak housing market release with sales falling -10.7 in December. The housing market has slowed dramatically after the Reserve Bank introduced much tougher lending rules in October last year. (see todays graph below) Overnight we have another Fonterra dairy auction, the challenge for Fonterra will be if they can move any more volume into the market. Fonterra has been reducing the supply of milk at its auctions since August last year, initially due to wet weather but latterly growing conditions have improved so more milk should be available. Tonight we get updates on UK inflation which will be monitored for signs of the weaker Pound flowing through into higher prices. Markets focus on how Brexit will play out, Pound weakens This week we will finally have some idea as to how one of the biggest impacts on the world markets will play out over the next two years. The United Kingdoms Prime Minister Theresa May will be delivering a speech in regards her plans for Brexit. Intentions are for the formal processes of negotiating the terms of the UKs exit from the European Union by the end of March. Leading up to the decision little indication to how things will play out has been presented to the market. A few points that could potentially be presented and cleared up within the speech would be specifically Mays plans in relation to trade access and the free movement of people. The main concern for the markets will be whether or not the tone of speech will indicate a soft or hard Brexit. Both the Kiwi and the Aussie made some promising gains against the likes of the USD EUR and GBP last week. The NZDAUD however is starting to come under a bit of pressure trading just under 0.9500 levels. On the data calendar this week we have another Fonterra Dairy auction and will be interesting to see if the price can stabilize and whether Fonterra can move some more volume. From the US the release of CPI data Thursday and unemployment rates Friday. Lastly Australia has the release of jobs data on Thursday. NZD and AUD rise as USD sell off continues Commodity currencies perform as Trump speech under delivers expectations of Fiscal policies. The market had been anticipating Trumps first press conference since the election two months ago. Trump had campaigned on policies regarding an injection of 1 Trillion USD in infrastructure spending and decrease of taxes, mainly the decrease in corporate taxes from 35 to 20. In Trumps effort to bring jobs back to America and get manufacturing on the rise back in the US. Trump failing to deliver the specific message in relation to these policies has the market thinking, how important are these issues to Trump Next week Tuesday UKs Prime Minister Theresa May delivers a long awaited speech on the governments plans for negotiating the UKs exit out of the EU. Theresa May will be under intense pressure to offer detail into the governments approach to article 50. This has seen the Pound under pressure against the likes of the NZD and AUD. Across in Europe we are starting to see some signs of positive economic growth and bullish forecasts for the Euro. More specifically the positive outlook is coming from countries such as France, Italy and the UK, on the back of a lower EUR and Pound. This brings forward the question, could the EUR be the surprise performer in 2017 Coming up on the data front today we have the Chinese Trade balance, US retail sales and producer price inflation. USD on the back foot after Trump speech Markets have been eagerly awaiting President-elect Donald Trumps first press conference since being elected which was held this morning. The market was looking for updates on Trumps plans on slashing corporate taxes and 1 trillion in infrastructure spending. However, Trumps speech delivered no indication in reference to these polices which left markets with no indication of his future plans. Trumps speech was mainly focused on other areas in which have little economic impact causing markets to sell the US Dollar. On the back of Trumps speech both the Kiwi and Aussie have made solid gains against the USD and a number of currency pairs this morning. The NZDAUD continues its trend downward as it moves back towards its fair value level. Oil prices have made a slight gain boosted by a weaker USD and news that Saudi Arabia (the worlds largest exporter of Oil) had cut exports to Asia. The decline in Oil prices occurred despite the fact that US Crude inventories continue increased by 4.1 million barrels in the latest data update. Coming up on the data calendar we have US unemployment claims and Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaking at a town hall meeting in Washington. Her comments will be scrutinized for any updates on the Feds planned three interest rate hikes this year. NZD slides vs AUD The NZDAUD has seen its first dip under 0.9500 since the end of November on the back of a strengthening Australian dollar. The AUDUSD has seen a rise from below 0.7200 to around 0.7350 mid-rate this morning. Against a backdrop of growing nervousness about Trumps looming trade war with China it looks like speculators are closing out their bets on a weaker Aussie Dollar, electing to move to the sidelines and see how the trade battle unfolds. The NZD has started the year with a softer tone after a weak Fonterra Dairy auction last week spooked investors. Fonterra continues to restrict supply at their auctions but despite this the recent rebound in prices looks like it may have run its course. Tonight we get the first planned press conference by Donald Trump and markets are nervous in the lead up to it. The key areas to monitor will be his comments around China, trade and a potential border tax being imposed on both Mexico and Canada. Yesterday Chinese producer prices rose sharply as the recent weakness in the Yuan flows through into imports which drive the huge Chinese manufacturing industry. This could well lead to some more inflation globally given Chinas dominance in supplying goods to the world. Tonight we get updates on UK manufacturing as well as US Oil inventories. Key Themes for 2017 Looking ahead to 2017 it seems clear that the newly elected US President Donald Trump is going to be the main theme for at least the early part of the year. Trumps campaign promises including building a wall between the US and Mexico as well as labelling China as a currency manipulator. He also plans to spend USD 1.0 Trillion on infrastructure and slash the corporate tax rate from 35 to just 20. The net result of these plans if implemented will see the US Governments debt levels rise which should see US interest rates rise and in turn lead to a stronger US dollar. Trump also plans to encourage more Oil drilling which might push the price of crude Oil down over time. In Europe Politics look set to take centre stage with Elections due in France, Germany and the Netherlands. The good news is that both growth and inflation are starting to recover. In the UK the ongoing Brexit deliberations are set to be the main focus but similar to Europe inflation looks to be on the rise with the sharp decline in the Pound last year finally starting to flow through to high street prices will this be enough to see the Pound stage a rebound Chinese growth is also stabilising but the potential for a trade war with the US casts a doubt over the outlook. China holds over USD 1.2 Trillion of US Government debt so any trade sanctions by the US might have more widespread consequences. Closer to home the housing sector will be the main focus. The last three housing booms have all ended in a 7 year, 1987, 1997 and 2007. Will 2017 maintain the pattern Also the general Election due by November might be closer than previously thought with John Key stepping down late last year. All of the above suggest we will be in for a volatile year in the currency markets. History suggests that both Importers and Exporters will be presented with favourable exchange rates at some point during the year. Taking advantage of those times with prudent currency hedging will be the best way to protect your businesses underlying margins. As always the team at HiFX will be here to help guide you through the swings in the currencies. 2017 kicks off with on par jobs data The year starts off with some relatively solid jobs data from the US which continues to maintain the Feds outlook of steady jobs growth to carry on their rate hike campaign. Although Non-Farm payrolls were below expectations for December, the November data was revised upwards. The big positive was an increase in average hourly earnings which rose 2.9 for the year. With the Fed looking to see an increase in wage inflation as an indication of a strong jobs market, will help maintain their anticipation to increase interest rates. In 2016 the US economy created 2.16 million jobs maintaining the strong rebound post the GFC with a net 10 million jobs added. Oil prices have made slight gains as the outlook for cuts in Oil production slowly begin to settle in. US Crude inventories saw a much greater than expected decrease in number of barrels in inventory. Falling from an estimated 1.8million barrels decrease to 7.1million barrels held by commercial firms in the US. The NZD and AUD have consolidated vs the US Dollar over the holiday period but both have failed to maintain a slight rebound seen last week. Looking ahead this week we have the release of Australian retail sales and Chinese consumer price inflation tomorrow. Wednesday night we have the release of UK manufacturing production and finally on Friday Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks which could show signs of potential Fed outlooks. Kiwi drifts ahead of GDP The last major data out of New Zealand for the year is the Q3 GDP released today at 10:45am expectations are for another positive rise of 0.8 for the quarter and annualised growth at 3.6. Q2 GDP figures came in slightly under expectations from 1.1 to 0.9. The New Zealand economy has continued to grow at a solid pace driven largely by construction in the housing and commercial sectors. This afternoon we also have lending and credit data out from the RBNZ. It will be interesting to see if there are any signs of a slowdown in home lending given the sudden drop in activity in the housing market after the Reserve Banks latest 40 LVR rules were introduced. By most metrics house prices in New Zealand appear highly inflated. In the US housing data came in better than expected holding up the USD against the majority of its currency pairs. The NZD and AUD continue to weaken off the back of the strengthening USD as the two currencies seem to be on the back foot after interest rate cuts by both RBNZ and RBA. Oil prices fell slightly on the back of expectations that the US the largest consumer of Crude Oil, would begin to shrink the inventories of its Oil stocks. For the past four weekly releases Oil inventories have come down with expectations for inventories to decrease by another 2.5million barrels figures of Crude stocks rose by 2.3million barrels. Brent Crude futures fell by 1.5. Markets begin to calm before the holiday season Overnight the Kiwi dropped further to test the .6900 area but has so far found support around that level this morning. Overnight we had the fortnightly Fonterra dairy auction which came in slightly lower than the previous auction. Although the GDT price continues to publish relatively positive figures over the past few months, what should be noted is the decrease in volume at the dairy auctions. Fonterra is rumoured to be turning away milk to try to drive the price up With product volumes down, does this cast doubt on growth and export receipts going forward We get an update on the NZ trade balance figures at 10:45am this morning with another trade deficit expected - more imports than exports. Also on the data front today we have NZ migration figures at 10:45am. Overnight we have the release of US Crude Oil inventories, a drawback of Oil inventories of the worlds largest consumer of Oil could indicate the global oversupply is beginning to shrink. Tomorrow we have the release of NZ GDP growth figures with an expectation of a 0.8 figure priced in. Kiwi continues to weaken The story continues with the weakening Kiwi now trading around the low 0.6900 area against the USD. The trend continues against the likes of the JPY, EUR and GBP trading around 81.00, 0.6650 and 0.5575 respectively. Against the AUD however trading has continued to fluctuate between 0.9500 -0.9600 still offering good value to importers. This morning the Yen has spiked on the back of the assassination of the Russian Ambassador to Turkey. As markets generally move their bets to safe-haven currencies in regards to any political uncertainty. This could potentially further weigh on the Kiwi as the uncertainty that may arise from the unfortunate situation. As the NZD is generally seen as a risk currency for traders and will generally cash out their bets. This morning US Fed Chair Janet Yellen spoke in regards to the continued job market strength, where wage growth and low layoff rates are helping drive the strongest jobs market in nearly a decade. Yellen highlighted that the only challenge the US job market faces is slow economic growth and disappointing productivity. By which the Fed will hope that inflation will slowly pick up to kick start growth in the US. Today on the data front we have the RBA meeting minutes from their December meeting. We also have the bank of Japans release of their Monetary Policy Statement, overnight we have the last dairy auction for the year. Kiwi beginning to offer better value to exporters Coming into the week before Christmas the Kiwi has lost ground against its major currency pairs. The last 3 trading days has seen a significant sell off in the Kiwi. The NZDUSD saw as high as 0.7238 right before Thursday mornings Fed meeting now trading around 0.6960 this morning. No specific news has caused the recent sell off, but when you step back and take a look at the Kiwi over the past year. In a world of flat and negative interest rates the NZD offered 2.50 at the start of the year and was slowly decreased to 1.75. But the outlook for 2017 suggests the interest rate outlook could change with speculation for another rate cut by the RBNZ if housing falters and the likes of the US and possibly the UK raise interest rates. A narrowing of the interest rate differential against these currencies may begin to weigh on the NZD. Opening today the Kiwi sees itself down against the AUD 0.9540, EUR 0.6670, JPY 82.15 and GBP 0.5575 all of which are offering exporters better value than we have seen in quite a while. With a quiet week on the data front before Christmas, locally we have business confidence at 1:00pm today. Overnight Wednesday morning we have the final dairy auction of the year and NZ trade balance at 10:45am. The finally on Thursday we have NZ GDP figures with an increase in Q3 growth forecast to be 0.8. From the US we have Durable goods orders and GDP figures. US Dollar surges after Fed hike The US dollar index surged to its highest level in 14 years, on the back of the Feds more aggressive interest rate forecast. The NZDUSD took a hit falling 2 cents from yesterday mornings highs seen just before the Feds announcement. It starts the day just above the 0.7000 level. The Feds future outlook on interest rate hikes increased from two rate hikes in 2017 to three rate hikes. What also caught the markets attention was the likeliness of the Feds pace of raising interest rates faster than expected. With the expectations of Trumps aggressive economic plans, the Fed highlighted that there may be some influence on the Feds decision making on future rate hikes. Yesterday Yellen indicated that there was confidence in the economy, however, there is a concern of a slowdown of productivity growth domestically in the US. With incoming President elect Donald Trumps views on economic stimulus it is likely to see domestic production increase, in his attempt to bring jobs back to America. The anticipation of Trumps views on economic stimulus is seen as having a significant inflationary impact. This will have the Fed on their toes to maintain their inflation target of 2.0. In the UK the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said inflation would rise sooner but peak lower than previously forecast. The Bank of England are now firmly on hold and could well be the next Central Bank to start raising interest rates next year. Fed raises rates, sees 3 hikes next year rather than 2 The US Federal Reserve has made the decision to raise US interest rates this morning. The Fed now plan to raise interest rates 3 times next year instead of the 2 hikes that the market had been looking for. Fed Chair Janet Yellen stated that a hike in interest rates this morning was a result of confidence in the economy. A number of factors influencing the Feds decision have been fulfilled with the US jobs market currently at the strongest levels seen since the GFC. Yellens outlook is that Economy will continue to perform well with forecasts for GDP to increase over the next few years and the job market to continue to strengthen. However, the Fed is still concerned at current inflation levels being below the Feds target of 2. Currently inflation levels of 1.4 are still well below the Feds target. The agenda on everyones mind has been what influences of Presidential elects Donald Trumps Fiscal Policy stimulus will have on the Feds decisions. Yellen did comment that Fiscal Policy would have an effect on the Feds decision making. But Yellen insisted that the Fed would not speculate on Fiscal impacts until more details of actual Fiscal stimulus are established. One of the main concerns for the Fed is the slowdown of productivity growth in the US. With Trumps intentions on injections of US1 trillion into infrastructure and a campaign to bring jobs back to the US. The Fed will be on the lookout for any indication of actual change in domestic production to aid continuing job strength and cause inflation o spike higher. In the markets the NZD has plunged over 1 cent vs the US Dollar as the investors react to the prospect of higher US interest rates next year. The NZD is also down vs the Pound and slightly weaker vs the AUD with the NZDAUD rate back down below 0.9600. On the data front this afternoon we have Australian employment data at 1:30pm and UK retail sales overnight. From the US overnight we have the release on consumer price inflation and Fed manufacturing index. Markets steady ahead of Fed The USD has steadied against its major currency pairs ahead of tomorrow mornings Fed meeting. Markets will have a sharp ear for any wording that will indicate the thoughts of the Feds future rate hike plans. Specifically anything that would identify the number of future rate hikes and at what pace these rate hikes will come. The market is currently pricing in two more Fed rate hikes for next year and a further two hikes for 2018, which if they all came about would put the US cash rate at 1.50. Despite all the recent political turmoil the worlds two largest economies continue to present steady economic figures. The US continues to present positive job and domestic production figures maintaining the strength of the USD. Although China has been slower this year it looks like growth is picking up in the worlds second largest economy. Novembers factory output and retail sales grew faster than expected. Forecasts for Chinas growth look to be on track for its growth target of 6.5-7 as government spending ramps up. Ahead of the Fed tomorrow morning Bank of England Governor Mark Carney speaks overnight, which will have traders speculating on where the future outlook of the BOE sits, will the next move in UK interest rates be upwards Also ahead of the Fed we have US retail sales for November with a solid 0.4 rise expected. After the Fed excitement tomorrow morning we have the release of monthly Australian employment figures. Oil prices rise to 18th month high A combined agreement by both OPEC and Non-OPEC members to curb Oil production output has seen prices rise to their highest level in eighteen months. This is the first such agreement among the group since 2001. Both groups have come to an agreement to reduce production by a total of 1.758 million barrels per day. The short-term results have seen Oil prices rise with Brent crude now trading around US54 per barrel. With forecasts to see Oil trade up towards US60 if markets see actual output reduced to figures agreed upon. Locally yesterday the release of the monthly REINZ house price data showed total house prices sales fell for its 5th consecutive month. Prices in Auckland fell for the first time in this cycle. The housing market saw a slight slowdown in median house prices, while the countrys overall trend continued to strengthen. The big question for 2017 is how big will the slowdown in the housing market be Rising mortgage rates pose a further challenge to a market already struggling to cope with the Reserve Banks latest lending restrictions. In the markets the US Dollar took a step backward as the markets start to second guess how the US Fed will react to the sharply stronger US Dollar. The stronger dollar will help keep imported inflation down but whether that will be enough to counter-balance the inflation surge anticipated from the Trump infrastructure spend remains to be seen. Today we get an update on Industrial production from China as well as local manufacturing data for NZ which is due at 10.45am. Tonight UK inflation data will be the main focus with the sharply weaker Pound likely to see inflation push higher and spark speculation of UK interest rate hikes next year. All eyes focused on Fed this Thursday This week the lead up to the Feds interest rate review will be the key focus for markets. With the chances of the Fed raising interest rates now highly expected, the focus will be on any direction from the Fed as to how many rate hikes are to come. With a curve ball of inflationary factors the Fed will need to be vigilant to maintain inflation within their 2 band. With an expectation of Presidential candidate Donald Trumps aggressive fiscal stimulus injection of 1 Trillion USD in infrastructure spending. The Feds interest plan will also need to focus on any potential increases in Oil prices. With OPEC reaching an agreement to reduce Oil production output last month a swing in Oil prices could have a significant impact on inflation levels. Now on the cards of the Oil story is an agreement of non-OPEC members reaching an agreement to reduce oil production. With OPEC agreeing to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day, non-OPEC members will also reduce production by 558,000 barrels per day. With a reduction of 1.758 million barrels per day, could well see the price of Oil beginning to rise. The short-term outlook for the USD looks as though there is not much that can get in the way of the strengthening of the USD. With the NZDUSD having a run towards 0.7200 last week, importers should be cautious of continued strength from the USD. On the data front this week, today we start with China Industrial production figures at 3:00pm. A string of data before the Fed meeting from the US Retail sales, Producer Price Index and Crude Oil inventories. Thursday 1:30pm we have Australian employment data. finally overnight Friday we have the Bank of Englands Monetary Policy meeting and Consumer inflation from the US. ECB extends Money printing by 9 months Overnight the European Central Bank announced an extension of its Money Printing Program, but said it will reduce the amount of printing from EUR80 Billion a month to EUR60 Billion. Instead of ending its QE program March 2017, the ECB have now made an extension until the end of 2017. As mentioned in yesterdays report the market would be looking at a tapering of the purchase amount of asset buy backs. Although the ECB has said it will be looking at reducing its buying of assets it should not be viewed as tapering. The ECB also reserved the right to increase the size of purchases once again if required. The Euro dropped sharply after the news as when compared with the prospect of higher US interest rates the US Dollar looks a standout investment. Next week we have the highly anticipated Fed meeting where the markets will be looking for any indication of how many rate hikes will come in 2017. Although the Fed are likely to raise rates next week they will also need to take a cautious approach to the overall strength of the global economy. Last meeting seven participants of the Fed indicated that they were looking at three or more rate hikes next year. This meeting will be closely monitored by if anymore of the Fed members have the same outlook of multiple rate hikes next year. The Fed are wary of taking a too aggressive approach to the rate hike cycle for fear of pushing up long term interest rates too quickly that would spook the housing market. In the US most mortgage interest rates are fixed for at least 15 years, normally 30. Yesterday the NZ Treasury announced its half year economic update. They have ramped up their growth outlook given the current strength of the economy. They have downplayed the effect and cost of the Kaikoura earthquakes but ramped up plans for infrastructure spending. Their outlook boosted the NZD vs the main cross rates but it has lost ground against the much stronger US Dollar. Aussie Dollar holds Steady despite drop in growth Yesterday Australian Q3 data came in lower than forecasted, with a drop of -0.50 recorded against expectations of a -0.1 decline. The negative figure is the result of overall cut backs on spending by business, consumers and government. This is the first time since 2011 the Australian economy has contracted and the fourth since the countrys last recession in 1991. Business investment has been on the back foot after a golden decade of Australias mining boom. However, with major commodities such as Oil, Coal and Copper on the rise a kick start in business spending could be in the pipeline. The focus tonight will be on the European Central Bank meeting where intentions are for an extension to their quantitative easing program. The outlook is for the ECB to extend its QE program beyond March 2017, but this might be combined with plans to gradually wind down their money printing program. With global inflation expected to start rising the ECB will be nervous about maintaining their money printing for too much longer. This morning RBNZ Governor Graeme Wheeler has talked up NZs growth prospects but yet again warned about the key domestic growth risk being a significant slowdown in the housing market. With global interest rates rising that slowdown could well be underway already. Today we have Australian trade balance figures at 1:30pm and Chinas trade balance figures this afternoon as well. RBA holds steady, talks up Commodities, worries about Apartments The RBA held interest rates at 1.50 as the Australian economy continues to chug along with a mixed bag of positive and negative data. With the global economy growing at a slower than average pace, there is some light at the tunnel for the Australian economy. Recent rises in hard commodities such as Oil, Coal and Copper has helped lift Australias terms of trade boosting national income. Chinas economy looks to have steadied in the short-term as growth in infrastructure and property construction picks up. The RBA were positive about the employment outlook, saying they think jobs will pick up near term. They did make a comment about the large number of new apartments coming on stream over the next few years against a backdrop of flat rents. This is the first sign that they are slightly worried about the outlook for house prices. Overnight Fonterra held their latest GDT Dairy auction with prices up again but volume dropping further. The Dairy auction, however lately does not seem to be on the markets radar, but it does raise questions about the impact of the significantly lower production over Q4. Today the markets will be tuned into the release of Australian GDP figures at 1:30pm, with markets now factoring in a small contraction in growth for Q3. Locally we have our RBNZ Governor Wheeler speaking at 11:00pm today and tomorrow at 10:00am. Euro gains as Italy rejects referendum Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzis referendum for a constitutional reform has been rejected by voters. With a landslide No result of 59.1, Renzi has gambled his political future on the results of the referendum. Although Renzi has stated he will resign after defeat it is possible he remains if Italys President Sergio Mattarella rejects his resignation. Markets reacted strongly to the result, the EURUSD initially fell after the result trading as low as 1.0503 but then surged to be now trading around the 1.0770 area. The result is essentially a vote for the status quo within Italy and shows little interest in leaving the European Union. A No vote to reform the structure of the Italian government to implement change with ease has stopped the possibility of change. Yesterday our own Prime Minister John Key announced his resignation after 8 years as the National Government leader. He plans to step down on the 12th of December with Finance Minister Bill English the likely candidate to take over for the rest of the duration of Nationals term. Under John Keys leadership National have held a solid lead in the Polls, but his stepping down may cause some interesting changes for next years election. Political uncertainty coming on the back of a sharp slowdown in the housing market casts doubts about the strength of the NZ Dollar going into 2017. Today we get an update on the Australian Current account ahead of the Australian Reserve Bank reviewing interest rates at 4.30pm. No change is expected but as usual their view on the outlook will garner most attention. US Dollar falters as Wages disappoint Fridays nights US jobs data came as expected in terms of jobs growth but wage data was weaker than anticipated. The market reacted by scaling back their expectations for Fed rate hikes for next year from 3 back to 2. The market is still fully expecting the Fed to hike rates when they conclude their meeting on December 15th. The question for markets now will be have they over invested in US Dollars in the short term The US Dollar has risen 14 vs the Yen and 8 vs the Euro since Donald Trump won the US election as the market factored in Trumps planned policies which are deemed to drive inflation higher. Another point to ponder is will Trumps infrastructure spending take quite a long time to materialise in terms of actual economic growth Certainly 2017 is shaping up as a very interesting year for the financial markets. In Europe overnight the Italian public voted on their referendum for constitutional reform. The current Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has said he will resign if the public vote no and reject his reform proposals. Renzi is trying to streamline the Italian political process to help bring about much needed reform. After years of stagnant economic growth Italy needs reform to bring much needed growth. A failure to introduce reforms will cast doubt on the viability of the heavily indebted Italian Banks. In the markets the Euro has been remarkably stable over the last week as the people takes a wait and see approach to the referendum. The NZD is back at the 0.7100 level reflecting the generally weaker US Dollar. This week we get data updates on NZ commodity prices later today followed by the Australian Reserve Banks monthly meeting tomorrow, where no change is expected. Wednesday mornings Fonterra Dairy auction will attract interest to see if Fonterra can increase the volume on offer and still maintain the recent price gains. All eyes on OPEC US interest rates surged to their highest level since mid-2015 as the debt markets take fright at the prospect of sharply higher inflation. Yesterdays OPEC Oil deal adds fuel to the inflationary fire that looms courtesy of US president elect Donald Trumps spending plans. Trump and his advisors plan to spend their way to prosperity but the spending will need to be financed by a growing mountain of debt. The interest rate markets are concerned about the looming debt increase and so want higher interest rates to compensate from the increased risk and higher debt levels. The US Dollar faltered for the first time since the US Election as the rise in US interest rates starts to raise a question about future growth. The currency market is concerned about how the US economy will cope with higher interest rates. After 8 years of ultra-low interest rates, since the financial crisis, considerable excess debt will have built up in a number of companies and households. In the markets the NZ Dollar has lost ground vs the Aussie Dollar as Australia commodity prices continue to rebound across the Tasman. The Reserve Bank of Australias commodity price index surged 10.2 in November following on from a 8.4 rise in October. The NZDAUD is back at the 0.9500 level after testing the 0.9600 area 24 hours earlier. The NZD is also softer vs the USD despite the US Dollar struggling. As we highlighted yesterday the slowing housing market poses the biggest risk to the NZD outlook. The Kiwi has also slipped back vs the Pound which is trading at its best levels since the flash crash of early October. Tonight all eyes will be on the monthly US jobs report. The market is looking for an extra 165,000 jobs to have been added in November and the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.9. Wage growth might garner the most attention as inflation is back on everyones radar. All eyes on OPEC The stage is set for OPEC to discuss the groups production cut proposal in Vienna overnight. The proposed cut of 1.2 million barrels per day does not seem to be favourable at first sight among its members. If an agreement on a cut in production is not reached there could be significant downside risk on oil prices and commodity currencies. With market benchmark Brent crude trading around USD45 per barrel a null vote on production costs could fall as low as USD25 across Oil markets. Price levels not seen from the likes of Brent Crude and West Texas since the early 2000s. As highlighted in yesterdays report a step back in the speculation of a higher USD off the back of a high expectation of increased inflation from President elect Donald Trump. A lower oil price would cool off Trumps inflationary impact from his government spending proposals. Overnight US GDP growth figures came out just above expectations, adding to the Feds likelihood of raising interest rates at their December meeting. With a cool down in the buying speculation of the USD other currencies are starting to make up some ground. The Pound made a move higher against the USD as UK data showed lending approvals expanded at its fastest annual pace in 11 years. Mortgage approvals were also stronger than anticipated highlighting better than expected consumer demand after Brexit. The NZ Reserve Bank has issued its Financial Stability Report this morning highlighting risks around Banks reliance on overseas funding. This is the biggest area for risk for NZ as a whole as the country continues to rely on overseas savings to fund the housing market. This is why the NZD will continue its pattern of climbing up the stairs and down the elevator shaft in times of global risk aversion. Quick links Important info Help Centre Freephone: Copyright copy Currency Online 2015 - a division of HiFX Limited. HiFX Limited (Company Registration No. 1121503) holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFSL) No. 240914 and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC). 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